I have concluded that all the computer models are going out of their minds right now. Every run seems to be drastically different from the rest.
It seemed throughout the day today that we would be definitely having a rainstorm. The 18z runs changed this prediction. They showed a more snowy solution, which shows that anything could happen with this storm at the moment. I have made a preliminary track map of the storm (Don’t criticize my lack of Photoshop experience) that shows the two possible tracks of the storm:
Right now I would say there is a 70% chance that this storm will take the rainy track and 30% chance that this storm will take the snowy path. The numbers are subject to change as we get closer to the 13th. These tracks are the outliers for the models, a most likely track would come in between these tracks; giving us snow at the onset, then changing to rain before changing back to snow at the back-end.
My current prediction: I will not make a prediction until Thursday because of the great uncertainty at the moment. I would say that the big blizzard solution is pretty unlikely right now, but you never know what could happen over the next few days.
I’ll be updating tomorrow on the progress of this storm