I have concluded that all the computer models are going out of their minds right now. Every run seems to be drastically different from the rest.
It seemed throughout the day today that we would be definitely having a rainstorm. The 18z runs changed this prediction. They showed a more snowy solution, which shows that anything could happen with this storm at the moment. I have made a preliminary track map of the storm (Don’t criticize my lack of Photoshop experience) that shows the two possible tracks of the storm:
Right now I would say there is a 70% chance that this storm will take the rainy track and 30% chance that this storm will take the snowy path. The numbers are subject to change as we get closer to the 13th. These tracks are the outliers for the models, a most likely track would come in between these tracks; giving us snow at the onset, then changing to rain before changing back to snow at the back-end.
My current prediction: I will not make a prediction until Thursday because of the great uncertainty at the moment. I would say that the big blizzard solution is pretty unlikely right now, but you never know what could happen over the next few days.
I’ll be updating tomorrow on the progress of this storm
This upcoming storm could be one of the largest snowstorms ever in December history, or it could be one of the largest rainstorms in December history. My job is to try to decipher which one it will be. Many people have asked me if 12-15 inches is a realistic estimation for this storm. As of the computer model trends right now, this is DEFINITELY NOT a realistic estimation. Most weather models seem to be in consensus with each other for a storm that’s 7 days away (which is pretty ridiculous if you ask me).
They are showing a low pressure system chugging along the jet stream and riding it into the Great Lakes, bringing in warm air from the south and making this snowstorm a gigantic rainstorm (2-3 inches of rain). I know this won’t excite many people and will probably be a big disappointment, but right now that’s how this storm is being portrayed.
Here is a latest weather model (18z GFS) from today. It is showing the storm riding the jet and bringing snow to Chicago and rain to the Philaburbia area:
Do not lose hope on this storm. It is a week away; I have seen plenty of storms go from a Great Lakes Cutter to a gigantic Nor-Easter on the weather models (example last December 19th). As we get closer to Dec 13th, the trends of the weather models will give us a better prediction of what this storm is going to turn out doing. Right now the trend is west, but in a few days it could shift 500-600 miles east (I’ve seen it before!) and turn into the 12-15 incher I was talking about yesterday. I will post again tomorrow and talk about the trend and whether we still have a chance at this storm.
Hi everybody. I’m sorry for the lack of updates recently, I feel I have let my readers down. 😦
Ok let’s get to the weather. I have been telling a few classmates at school this past week about a snowstorm/pseudo-blizzard that will hit next Monday (December 13th). I am extremely excited about the latest computer model run from today showing our area getting 12-15 inches of snow Sunday night into Monday night.
This model run is very important for the future of this storm. Many experts have been calling this storm for the past week hence the reason I have been informing a few of my classmates about it. This is the first model run from the GFS that is showing a full-fledged storm hitting our area. We have a negative NAO (North American Oscillation) predicted for that time frame. Negative NAO values generally indicate some kind of low pressure crossing the country or a nor easter. The large rainstorm we just had earlier this week made the NAO values tank. What intrigues me about the December 13th storm is the abundance of cold air that will be in the area during that time frame. The last storm didn’t have enough cold air associated with it hence the reason we received a ton of rain.
For this upcoming storm, everything is seeming to fit together perfectly, which doesn’t happen too much in the weather world. We got neg NAO, cold air, a storm system, and some model agreement 9 days out.
On a more serious note, weather is very unpredictable; we are relying on a bunch of computers to predict the future. There is always room for this storm to be a bust.
I will post a prelim SNOW MAP(!!) by midweek if the models are still showing the storm. If this storm DOES come through and we get a snowstorm, I would say 6-15 inches would fall on the area guaranteeing 1 or 2 snow days for many schools.