Update 5:30 PM: So far no real changes on the models. Now-casting will probably be the best way to predict from this time forward as the storm starts to wind up along the coast.

Hello everyone. I won’t be doing a snow map for this storm, just because of its complexity in nature. The Philadelphia area is looking at a very sloppy storm Tuesday morning as a low pressure system rides the trough to our east. The storm won’t bring in the cold air like the storm last week, therefore giving us a wintry mix. By midnight tonight, snow should start to fall across the area and accumulate a general 1-2 inches. By early morning, the snow will turn to freezing rain as warm air aloft takes over. Freezing rain is pretty much ice. It looks like rain is falling, but because the surface temperature will be lower than 32 degrees, when the rain hits the surface, it will freeze over.

The freezing rain will turn to rain by 4-5 AM south of Philadelphia and 8-10 AM north of Philadelphia. I still am not too confident in the time frame of this storm. Wintry mix storms are generally the hardest to predict, as you have to rely on where 32 degree mark will be at the surface and in the upper atmosphere. There is a chance that this storm busts and a chance that this storm turns into a major ice storm. I would say a major ice storm is unlikely at this point, as most computer models are in agreement Temperature wise.

Schools: It will be a difficult decision for schools in Bucks, Montgomery, Mercer, and Hunterdon counties as the freezing rain will be falling during the morning commute. A delayed opening is pretty likely at this point for most schools.

Next storm: A SNOWstorm could hit the area on Friday. More on this once the slop storm is over.