October Snow Update; Leaning Toward a More Minor Event

The forecast models have finally started to agree with each other. At this point it is looking like the storm will skirt the region. It is not looking like we will get a major amount of snow/rain from this storm. As with any storm, situations tend to change in an instant. We are dealing with complex tropical system (Rina) in the Atlantic, and it’s October.

The timeframe of this storm has not completely been ironed out. If the storm turns into a full-fledged nor’easter, we would have rain Saturday morning and afternoon followed a period of snow Saturday night. If the storm goes further east and does not strengthen, we are looking at a period of rain Saturday night followed by a brief burst of snow.

Here is the GFS model, showing a weaker nor’easter. Rain followed by a brief period of snow is expected from this particular scenario:

Weaker Nor'easter

There will not be much snow accumulation from this storm, even if we receive a longer period of snow than expected. The ground is too warm, the ocean is too warm, and the current angle of the sun does not support accumulation. As for totals, I am currently thinking a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces. If the nor’easter is stronger than expected, then a general 1-3 inches of snow could fall.

More to come tomorrow


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