Heavy Rains Coming Tonight; Very Small Possibility for a Boxing Day Snowstorm

22 12 2011

Major rains will spread over the area tonight as a low pressure system passes just to our east. Areas north and west of the region could see some snow or ice mixed in with the rain. Unlike the unusual squall lines that passed through last night, this storm will be mostly heavy rain with some gusty winds on the backend Temperatures should plunge as the storm pulls away. This cold air should continue through Christmas.

Rainstorm Tonight

Our possible Boxing Day storm:

There is a chance of a nor’easter affecting our area Sunday night into Monday. I have been very pessimistic with this system. The nao teleconnection does not support any storm riding the coast (aka it stays positive: see image) and none of the models have been showing the snowstorm. Most models have been showing a flat jet stream, which would  propell the storm out to sea. Under this scenario, we would have a beautiful, sunny Christmas Day and Boxing Day. But, there is a slight chance that the trough turns negative and brings the storm up the coast. Cold air would be in abundance, and we would recieve a substantial snowstorm. The likelyhood for this scenario, however, is around 10%. As we have seen so far this winter, the computer models have done a terrible job pinpointing the location of storms. Under most cases, I would say that there is no chance for a storm to affect the area Monday. But, because of the forecast models’ inconsistencies this year with storms, I still believe that there is a slight chance this storm rides the coast.

Current NAO Projections

 

I have heard many people saying winter is over because we have been so seasonably warm. I would not worry at all about the current temperatures. What goes up, must come down. I am expecting one large storm that will change our pattern to a wintery one. Whether it is the upcoming Boxing Day possibility, or something in January, a major nor’easter will come. Remember, winter just started yesterday. We still have plenty of time for a storm.

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