A Tricky Forecast for the Upcoming Snowstorm on Saturday

12 12 2013

UPDATE: 3:45 PM Friday

No significant changes in my forecast for tomorrow. There has been some model waffling, however, which shows that there could be a few surprises tomorrow when the storm arrives. I am sticking with a general 2-4 inches in the Philadelphia metro area with higher totals further north and west from the city. The snow should also turn to a mix in most areas by late Saturday night.

 

Hey everybody. Well, another fairly large storm will affect the area on Saturday! The question that remains, especially for the big cities along I-95, is what precipitation type we will receive.

A low pressure system will move through the midwest tomorrow before transferring to the coast sometime on Saturday. The problem for many models and forecasters alike is determining when this transfer occurs. An earlier transfer means more cold air will be brought in behind the storm, meaning more snow for our region. A later transfer means that more warm air will move in aloft and at the surface, meaning more mixed precipitation for the region.

Split Screen GFS

Split Screen GFS

All models are in a general consensus, but with a storm like this, small changes mean large differences in precipitation type. Snow will move in around Saturday 3 PM and continue into the night. Depending on when the transfer occurs, the snow will change over to a mix for areas around I-95 by midnight on Sunday. This changeover to mix could happen later or not even occur if the storm transfers earlier.

Right now, I am taking a conservative approach toward this system. I am calling for 1-3 inches for areas along I-95 with the cutoff being very sharp as one heads further north and south. Allentown could receive 6-8 inches while Doylestown could only receive 1-3. Here is my snow map for the upcoming storm, enjoy!

Snow Map for the 2nd December Storm of 2013

Snow Map for the 2nd December Storm of 2013

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