After an extremely busy Saturday, I finally got to check out the models for the upcoming storm. It’s another complex system where a great lake cutter will help spurn a secondary on the coast. Of course anytime we talk about freezing rain and ice, it’s going to be a difficult forecast. It’s even more difficult being the fact that a secondary will form on the coast bringing in even more cold air.
What are we looking at? A prolonged period of light to moderate snow Tuesday morning, probably dropping 3-6 inches. By Tuesday afternoon, the low in the midwest will start bringing in warm air aloft and change the snow to the dangerous freezing rain. Then we will wait for round two starting Wednesday morning. The second round, like the last storm, will be worse than the first. Heavy sleet and snow will change to heavy freezing rain by afternoon before a brief period of rain in the evening. According to the brand new NAM computer model, we are looking at a major ice storm on our hands on Wednesday. If this solution were to happen, the whole Philadelphia northward would be shut down. The details still have to be ironed out as the storm is still 3 days away.
Map below shows major ice storm 1 PM Wednesday:
There will be a few sources (news stations, weather.com) that will put a prolonged period of rain in the forecast. I do agree with them that there will be a brief period of rain, but most of this storm, in my opinion, will be in the frozen department. I am basing this prediction on the pattern we’re going through this year. Three days before the last snowstorm, we were looking at a rainstorm. This pattern supports a more snowy/icy solution than rainy, hence the reason I am calling for a brief period of rain, not a prolonged one.
Note: Because of the continued uncertainty, I will not give my opinion for school closings at this time