Forecast for Sunday Feb 28th

Hello everyone, sorry for the very late post. I decided to take a day off today after the stress of the last storm. Anyway, there is another storm in our vision and is looking out to sea right now, but could shift west and give us a decent snowstorm!

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy depending on whether you get flurries or not Hi: 41

Sunday Night: Clearing out and colder. WATCH FOR REFREEZE. Low 29

Monday: Sunny and warm. Hi 48 Low 33

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy by the afternoon. Hi 46 Low31

Wednesday: Snowstorm? IF not, then partly cloudy skies Hi 36 Low 29

Coming tomorrow: An analysis of the next storm and a story on the Tsunami

Top 10 Snow Totals and Forecast

Sunny skies are prevailing right now as temps hold around freezing. Totals ranged from a foot in the northern areas (except for Chester County, where for some reason got more than everybody…) to five inches in the southern areas. I know that this storm may have been a little overhyped, but it still caused many power outages and travel problems. Anyway, here are the top 10 snow totals:

1. East Mantmeal in Chester Co. – 12.0″ (Note that east nantmeal was the # 1 snow total for the last blizzard with 26.8″)

2. East Rockhill in Bucks Co. – 11.7″

3. Perkasie in Bucks Co. – 11.7″

4. Montgomeryville in Montgomery Co. – 11.5″

5. South Coventry in Chester Co. – 11.3″

6. Exton in Chester Co- 10.1″

7. Royersford in Montgomery Co. – 10.0″

8. Chesterbrook in Chester Co. – 10.0″

9. Tabernacle in Burlington Co. – 9.9″

10. Trappe in Chester Co. – 9.8″

And now the forecast for the next few days:

Tonight: Snow showers from snowicane will slow down as the night progresses. Wind also dying down. Low 28

Tomorrow: Occasional flurries throughout the day, but nothing to accumulate on anything. Warmer Hi 40

Tomorrow Night: Clear skies Low 30

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with snow-melt. High 41 Low 29

Monday: Very warm. Will feel more like spring. Sunny skies Hi 47 Low 32

The Wrap Up

Well, there are sunny skies at my house right now after the storm blew through the area during the nighttime hours. Sorry I couldn’t update in the middle of the night, I was sleeping. The storm is starting to dissipate as the dry air is starting to break up the precipitation The NWS service nonetheless extended the WINTER STORM WARNING until 5:00 PM because some of the snow showers will be heavy and localized.Overall I think I did pretty well with my snow predictions for the northern areas. For the southern areas however, the storm was a bust as the low went further north as expected, therefore bringing its precipitation north.

Hopefully this will be the last storm of the season because I’m kind of getting tired of the stress before every huge blizzard that comes through the area. There is a chance of another storm Wednesday into Thursday and it is looking pretty good for 5-10 inches of snow. Right now it is pretty far out, so you never know what will happen (hopefully something light).

Top 10 Snow totals coming later and maybe pictures

Anyway here is a satillite image of the snowicane as its being called:

Late February Snowicane

Updates During the Storm

10:30 Update from Jason: STORM REALLY WRAPPING UP! 973 mb pressure at the eye of the storm. CAT 2 HURRICANE pressure! NYC is seeing extremely heavy snow and all that will mostly likely head to the area overnight. The low will stall out over North Jersey so expect a few hours of blizzard conditions (1-2″ per hour rates, 30+ mph winds) for a few hours in the morning! I am really not sure about how much snow is going to fall, but its looking pretty good according to the radar! My house is literally shaking from the winds as I am under an extremely heavy snowband right now. Expect these snowbands to keep moving through the area until tomorrow noon. Otherwise have a restful night, I know I won’t!!!

8:30 Pm Update from Jason: Winds are finally starting to howl and the snow is starting to stick on paved surfaces. The storm is about to turn westward and give us the worst of the storm overnight. Overall, the snow totals may be a little lower than I thought, but this storm is still a monster and will do  a lot of damage to the area. I am guessing most schools will be closed tomorrow, but as of now most aren’t. I will have the forecast for the coming days later tonight.

The snow is still very wet, so making snowmen will be no problem unlike the last few storms where the snow was extremely dry! Hopefully you’ll be able to make one this size:

Tallest Snowman in the World

3:30 update from Jason: Snow is definitely falling at a faster pace at my home in Bucks County. It looks like the lull of precipitation is starting to dissipate and the heavy snows starting to reform again. My snow totals may be a little off for the southern areas because of the sharp cutoff of snow so far from this storm. I still think anyone Philly northward is going to get 10 inches or more…. Blizzard conditions will occur tonight with tropical storm force winds. There will be some pictures from Brett’s house later on this afternoon. If you have any questions, just ask.

Update 12:15 Pm from Jason:

The snow is falling at a nice pace here in Princeton. Not much wind so far, but they will kick up later today, reflective of the NWS issuence of a Wind advisory. So far the snow has been very wet and hasn’t been sticking to many roads. This will change as the storm will wind itself up west and bring in the cold air from Canada. Right now the Jackpot zones in the Philaburbia Coverage area look to be Mercer and Hunterton counties as they will be the closest to the storm.

Expect a lull in the precip this afternoon in areas South, which could lower their snow totals a bit. There will be another update in a few hours with some pictures and snow totals

Brett and I will be providing updates during the storm to keep you informed of whats happening around the area. Also refer to this current radar image for reference during the Snowicane:

Continueously Updating Animated Radar

The Snow Map and Explaination

I’m so sorry for the extremely long delay on my snow map; the application I use to make it kept crashing when I saved the map, so I had to keep starting over.

The Snowicane of 2010 is going to be a monster. It will go up the coast and stall out in over Short Hills NJ for a little while. As the storm stalls, it will also bring heavy snows and winds to our area for an extended period of time. The weather models have finally cut down the errors in their runs, so I am pretty confident about this storm. Here is the timetable for it:

6:00 AM Thursday: Snow starts up in most of the area, going from south to North

1:00 PM-7:00 PM Thursday: Heavy snows and Blizzard conditions plague the area during the afternoon on Thursday. Expect blizzard conditions and maybe a BLIZZARD WARNING.

8:00 PM Thursday- 8:00 AM Friday: During this time period, the storm will stall over North Jersey and bring moderate to heavy snow throughout Thursday Night

12:00 PM Friday: Snow starts to wind down and storm weakens and starts to pull out

1:00 PM Friday- 8:00 AM Saturday: Scattered Snow Showers throughout Friday

Note that there is a WINTER STORM WARNING in effect until 12:00 Pm Friday.


Snowicane Snow Map

Also, there is a storm that may hit the area next Wednesday, with some MORE snow!!! This could be the last snowstorm of the season!

A Little Explaination for the Upcoming 3rd Major Blizzard of 2010

Update at 11:30: The newest models just came out and are going with a general 12-15 inches of snow. Anything could change right now considering the model’s inconsistency. 6ABC news called this storm a hurricane with snow aka a snowicane! This storm is really blowing me away with its size and amount of precipitation that the models are projecting with it! Also I forgot to mention earlier that a WINTER STORM WATCH is issued for late Wednesday Night in to Friday. I would expect a WINTER STORM WARNING by tomorrow morning followed by a BLIZZARD WARNING during the storm!

This storm will be big. What defines big, you ask? A low pressure with winds that are going to be sustained in the 40 mph range throughout the Philaburbia Coverage Area. This storm won’t be just gigantic, it is also going to last a very long time. It is expected to start Thursday morning (8:00 AM range?) and end by late Friday night. This will most likely be a paralyzing storm for most of the region with schools closing on Thursday and Friday and businesses shutting down. There will be many, many power outages as well because of the heavy nature of the snow; great for snowmen, but terrible for tree branches and power lines. I am not confident to post a snow map yet because the last model run wasn’t as strong with this storm.

Note that this storm has a potential of being a huge bust (failure) because of the models inconsistency! This is just my opinion on what I think will happen based on the pattern of this winter.

Anyway,  here is a picture of the storm I found on…I found it very intriguing because this monstrous low pressure is right over Mercer county, which is right in the area!:

Low Pressure System Over Delaware River with Strong Winds

The lines represent the wind speed: the closer they are to each other, the higher the winds

Hopefully, I’ll be able to post a snow map either later tonight or tomorrow afternoon…

Forecast for Tuesday the 23rd and Beyond

Here is the forecast:

Tonight: Mix changing to freezing rain, then to just plain rain. Winter Weather Advisory out for Bucks, Montgomery, Hunterdon, and Somerset for the risk of ice.  Low 33

Tomorrow: Drizzle and occasional steady rain throughout the day. Warmer. Hi 41

Tomorrow Night: Intermittent snow and rain showers; little or no accumulation Low 32

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy after the morning… nice day to take a break from the precipitation falling from the sky. Hi 43 Low 30

Thursday: Chance of snow showers after noon. Becoming steady by nighttime. Possible Blizzard at night. Hi 36 Low 27

Coming tomorrow: Will the NAM model verify its blizzard scenario for the area on Thursday night/Friday? Updates on the unsettled weather, and the forecast.