Update on the Surprise Snowfall Tonight

The surprise bursts of snow which have been moving through the area is a real nice surprise. I do think that it will turn to rain by midnight tonight, but at least we’re getting SOME snow. Accumulations should be low even though it’s really coming down. There is a winter weather advisory for Bucks, Mont, Hunterdon, and Somerset. The NWS posted this not because of the snow, but for the freezing rain which will be moving through the area tonight. We could see a 1/10″ of ice on trees and streets by morning. Tomorrow will be damp and raw, as the 1st system moves out and another one moves in

Here is a preview of the next potential storm for some snow on Thursday Night/Friday… its really looking strong (15-20 inches of snow possibly!!!!):

Crazy big storm coming our way

The Past Week in Review

Welcome to the second weekly “week in review” post from Philaburbia Weather. We will start with last Monday and go to Sunday:

Monday the 15th: Clouds prevailed on Monday with a clipper system moving in during the night. Accumulations ranged from 1-3 inches of new snow on top of the foot of snow we had already.

Tuesday the 16th: Snow lasted in the morning fairly hard in places. Didn’t really stick to the streets, so traffic was steady throughout the day. Stayed cloudy into the afternoon and eventually we saw some sun by sunset.

Wednesday the 17th: Wednesday was plagued by some hit and miss snow showers in the area. If you weren’t under any showers, you had sunny skies with a brisk wind.

Thursday the 18th: The highs reached into the 40s on Thursday with pure sunshine. There was some gradual snow-melt also occuring on this day as we started the slow process of melting the snow.

Friday the 19th: Friday was mostly sunny and a little breezy. Temperatures we comfortable though with the high reaching once again into the 40s.

Saturday the 20th: Wind and sun prevailed once again on Saturday as for the third straight day, highs made it into the 40s. By this time, the snow-pack from the past few weeks was down a few hearty inches.

Sunday the 21st: Sunday was the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid 40s. Once again pure sunlight was in control for the entire day.

Here are some temp. and precip maps from the past week:

Temperature Compared to Normal for 2/15-2/21

And the total precip map from the past week (not that exciting because we didn’t get too much precip):

Total Precipitation for 2/15-2/21

Forecast for Monday the 22nd and Beyond

Sorry guys that I haven’t updated all day, its just been really busy for me lately…I promise I’ll be back full force tomorrow afternoon with my time-line of the next RAINstorm. Yes, it turned out that my map was right on about the upcoming storm. This upcoming week has been one of the hardest to forecast of the whole winter, I have no idea what is going to happen. The only thing I DO know is that there won’t be much sun for the entire week starting Monday and we are looking at THREE storm systems in our vicinity this week! And that leads up to my forecast:

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, rain arriving late Hi 41

Tomorrow Night: Rain, steady at times. Total rainfall of 1/2 inch. Low 34

Tuesday: Tuesday is in question… rain will slow down; drizzle throughout the day. Rain will pick up again at night from the second storm (maybe a mix in the northern coverage area) Hi 40 Low 32

Wednesday: Rain will slow up and maybe end as snow (that is a big maybe!!). Another lull of precipitation throughout the day with the third system arriving at night with rain (or mix) (or snow)! Very much in question. Hi 38 Low 32

What’s coming tomorrow you ask? The week past in review, the temp and precip compared to average of last week, and more on these very puzzling storm systems approaching our area!

Forecast for Sunday, February 21st to Tuesday, February 23rd

Difficult: that is all I have to say about the upcoming storm. The weather models are going all over the place and I may have to adjust my map tomorrow sometime…. One model, the NAM, is saying we get 6-8 inches of very wet and heavy snow. The other (GFS) is saying we get more like my snow map shows, but with 3 inches of rain!!! If this were to occur, major flooding from the melting of the snow-pack would plague the area. By tomorrow morning I will give you an update from the overnight models.

Here is the very undecided forecast for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday:

Tonight: Clear skies throughout the night Low 27

Tomorrow: Mostly clear in the morning becoming Partly cloudy by the afternoon Hi 43

Tomorrow Night: Partly to mostly cloudy Low 30

Monday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day with a chance of rain/snow by the evening Hi 40 Low 32

Tuesday: Mostly rain in the southern areas. Maybe a snowstorm for the northern areas… right now just going with mix/rain. Hi 38 Low 32

Tomorrow in the weather: New revelation of upcoming storm by 11:00 AM, another update in the evening (more of a specific snowmap)

Snow Map for Tuesday’s Wintry Mix Storm

Well, it turns out that the models are going with the warmer scenario for Monday Night/ Tuesday. I have made my preliminary map for Tuesday based on this warmer scenario. I do still have some insecurities about this storm. The latest model runs have been colder for this storm, which would make the snow to mix line come down to the Philaburbia Coverage Area. Before I go on the “cold and snowy” bus for this storm, I need to see some verification from the models this afternoon and evening before I make the snow line further south.

Preliminary "Mix Map" for Tuesday February 23rd

Looking to the future: The weather models are playing the “back-forth” game with the Thursday storm. I still think that we will get a decent amount of snow Thursday.

All in all, this week is looking to be a very busy week for the weather (It could be the last week we get snow this season!).

Forecast for Saturday February 20th

Hello everyone, sorry for the late posting. Well, tomorrow morning I will post my “snow map”, even though most of this storm will be in the form of rain. There just isn’t enough cold air in the system to give us any snow. I do believe that the northern part of the area could get mixed precipitation. I am now looking at a storm following right behind this one (Wednesday night into Thursday)… right now it is looking very promising for an all snow event. The thing that will be decided later will be: How much snow? And when exactly? This storm is still pretty far out and could change on the models by tomorrow and turn out to be nothing…I am just saying that there’s something on the weather models right now. If this storm were to occur, I could see schools closing Thursday and maybe Friday as  well.

Here is the forecast:

Tonight: Getting pretty cold overnight. Winds dying down. Low 26

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and warm. Hi 44

Tomorrow Night: Clear skies and becoming breezy again. Low 28

Sunday: A repeat of Saturday. Partly cloudy and a little windy Hi 42 Low 27

Monday: A little sun in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy by the afternoon. Rain will arrive by nighttime (a little wintry mix in the northern areas). Hi 37 Low 33

Forecast for Friday February 19th and More About the Next Storm

I have been hearing much talk about the next threat of snow coming up on Monday night into Tuesday. Right now, it is hard to imagine an all snow event, according to the models there isn’t any high pressure feeding the cold air into the system. This cold air is what gives us those huge blizzards we’ve been getting!

The GFS model is going with a mix/slop approach to the storm…maybe correct (or maybe not ). I’m still leaning toward a 75% snowstorm and the rest a rain/snow mix. I know of a few meteorologists who  believe that this storm will pull the cold air in; just like every other storm we’ve had this season. Nobody is really sure right now in the “game” One thing I am confident in is that a  winter storm watch will be up by Sunday afternoon. I will have a preliminary map tomorrow night. Here is a precipitation type map from the latest GFS weather model which shows the wintry mix of precipitation (and some ice 😦 )

Precipitation Type Map Shows Wintry Mix for Area

And now for the forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear very, very slight chance of a scattered flurry. Low 28

Tomorrow: Getting toasty 🙂 Sunny skies Hi 41

Tomorrow Night: Getting below freezing at night, watch for refreeze of melted snow Low 26

Saturday: Sunny skies, decent amount of snow-pack melting Hi 40 Low 26

Sunday: Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon, another nice day though Hi 43 Low 28

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