Uncertainty in the Long Range; Colder Weather Coming

28 11 2011

After a quiet Thanksgiving weekend, we have a closed low pressure system forming in the south. This storm will drop around an inch of rain around the area tomorrow. Because it is a closed low, the center of circulation will be colder than the rest of the storm. Snow will actually fall in Mississippi and Alabama when the center moves over these areas. Amazing how the weather works! After the storm moves out, we will have a stretch of cooler weather before the uncertainty begins….

Heavy Rain Tomorrow Night

Ok, long-range time. It has been a stressful past couple of days for weather forecasters. The long-range has been extraordinarily volatile. Last week, it was looking like the cold and stormy weather would start December 5th. Right now, I’m not even sure if we’re going to have any snow in December. Predicting when the first prolonged cold and stormy weather is one of the most challenging feats for forecasters. I still have a feeling that winter will start sometime in mid-December. Long range models have definitely been hinting at a more stormy pattern, and there is plenty of arctic air ready to come down from Canada. It will be only a matter of time.

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Large Rainstorm Tomorrow Night Into Wednesday; When Will Winter Start?

21 11 2011

Well, it has been a while since I last posted. The quiet weather pattern we have seen the last few weeks has finally come to an end, for now. A low pressure system will slide to the west of our area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing us a substantial rainstorm. Rain totals could approach two inches in some spots.

Heavy rain over the area 1AM Wednesday:

GFS model

The weather should be cool and sunny for the Thanksgiving parades and the Black Friday rush. High pressure will dominate to our south until another storm system affects the area next Tuesday. This storm should be mostly rain, with maybe some snow as it moves out. More details will surface as we head into the weekend.

In the long-range:…. Dramatic music!       The NAO looks to be headed into a more neutral position around Dec 5th. This means that the cold and snowy conditions should start not too far after. There are a few forecasters who do not believe the NAO and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) will be ideal for snow throughout the winter. I disagree with them. I believe our real snow season (the Halloween storm didn’t count) will start December 10th. The long-range forecast models are showing shots of prolonged cold air during this time period, as well as an active pattern. Stay posted!





Quiet Weather Pattern Will Continue Through Thanksgiving

9 11 2011

We have had quite a long stretch of nice weather since our major snowstorm a few weeks ago. The jet has shifted, bringing the cold air and storminess into the Midwest. Our weather pattern should stay quiet for the next few weeks.  Long range models have not been showing much in terms of snow or even rain (except for a few isolated showers). In my opinion, this stretch of nice weather will be the final transition before winter begins. After December 5th, the cold and stormy pattern should start-up again.

Here is the North American Oscillation. As you can see, it is forecast to be neutral/slightly positive for the next few weeks before. After that, things get fussy. The ensembles have a large discrepancy by December, illustrating the possibility of a pattern shift.

Note: A more positive NAO signifies a quiet weather pattern in the East Coast, while a more negative NAO signifies an active one.

NAO

 








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