Update on Isaac; Likely Into the Gulf

24 08 2012

As I mentioned in my last post, Tropical Storm Isaac is bearing down on the US coastline. As of 11 PM EDT, Isaac is 65 miles south-southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti, and is moving to the NW at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds near the center of circulation are 70 mph, very close to category 1 hurricane strength. Minimum central pressure is 990 mb.

Current Isaac Satellite

The forecast models have been shifting east and west every run. Before Isaac crossed the Lesser Antilles, it seemed like an East Coast threat was possible. However, Isaac took more of a westerly path and is staying more south. Most models are in agreement about Isaac’s future path. They project Isaac strengthening into a Cat 2 storm and hitting somewhere between New Orleans and Tallahassee. The GFS model shows Isaac hitting Mobile, Alabama before getting absorbed by a frontal boundary moving east. The European model shows a similar solution but instead brings some of the remnants toward our area. The Canadian model is the outlier; it shows Isaac going east of Florida and into Georgia.

Model projections for Isaac

My forecast:

Over the past few hours, Isaac has taken a jog to the north. This can prove very crucial in future forecasts of Isaac’s track and strength. Because of this northward movement, I will still consider a track east of Florida possible. My official forecast however, brings Isaac north of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting near Tallahassee, Florida. If our area is affected by Isaac late next week, there will likely be some drenching rain and some light winds. Other than that, it is looking to be a very interesting week for anyone living in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Georgia.

IF the status of Isaac changes, I will post an update on the blog.

 

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