Well, our Boxing day storm has officially been ruled out by the forecast models and meteorologists alike. A few days ago, it seemed that a few of the models weren’t handling the storm correctly, creating a bit of uncertainty. But, as we got closer and closer to the event, all models were in agreement: no storm on Boxing Day.

So, for our upcoming weather. Christmas Eve should be nice, but cold. Highs may not make it out of the 40s tomorrow. Christmas day should be a bit warmer, but still dry. No white Christmas this year folks… hey, there’s always next year! Monday will be the transition day, as it looks like a piece of energy will intensify into a low pressure system and turn northward. Where the turn takes place is still in question. Right now snow does not look likely from this storm, even if it takes a favorable path. Not enough cold air aloft will make it difficult for snow to fall. Things could change though, and the nao is turning negative, which is usually a sign of a stormy pattern coming up. Stay tuned.

And finally: GO EAGLES (AND JETS)!!

Major rains will spread over the area tonight as a low pressure system passes just to our east. Areas north and west of the region could see some snow or ice mixed in with the rain. Unlike the unusual squall lines that passed through last night, this storm will be mostly heavy rain with some gusty winds on the backend Temperatures should plunge as the storm pulls away. This cold air should continue through Christmas.

Our possible Boxing Day storm:

There is a chance of a nor’easter affecting our area Sunday night into Monday. I have been very pessimistic with this system. The nao teleconnection does not support any storm riding the coast (aka it stays positive: see image) and none of the models have been showing the snowstorm. Most models have been showing a flat jet stream, which would  propell the storm out to sea. Under this scenario, we would have a beautiful, sunny Christmas Day and Boxing Day. But, there is a slight chance that the trough turns negative and brings the storm up the coast. Cold air would be in abundance, and we would recieve a substantial snowstorm. The likelyhood for this scenario, however, is around 10%. As we have seen so far this winter, the computer models have done a terrible job pinpointing the location of storms. Under most cases, I would say that there is no chance for a storm to affect the area Monday. But, because of the forecast models’ inconsistencies this year with storms, I still believe that there is a slight chance this storm rides the coast.

 

I have heard many people saying winter is over because we have been so seasonably warm. I would not worry at all about the current temperatures. What goes up, must come down. I am expecting one large storm that will change our pattern to a wintery one. Whether it is the upcoming Boxing Day possibility, or something in January, a major nor’easter will come. Remember, winter just started yesterday. We still have plenty of time for a storm.

Well, it has been a while since I last posted. The weather pattern has really slowed down since our giant rainstorm two weeks ago. Currently, the teleconnections just haven’t been supporting a snowy weather pattern. While many people are concerned that we will have a warm and dry winter, I do not think there is anything to worry about. We have not even started winter (well, the meteorological winter started December 1st, but that’s beside the point) and temperatures have been close to normal for this time of year. We need to be patient about the snow and stay calm. Remember: if you wait, snow will come.

So, enough of my weather pep talk and back to our current weather. I have been looking in the long-range (around New Years) and there have been signs of a storm affecting our area any time from the 26th-31st. Right now, I am not sure how much cold air will be in place during this time frame and the forecast models have been quite inconsistent with temperatures so far this winter. We will see what happens over the next week!

Stay posted!

Rain will get heavy at times tomorrow morning and afternoon as a frontal boundary pulls through ahead of an impending nor’easter. Forecast models have been trending West with the nor’easter. It is looking very likely that scenario 3 (see past post) is going to come true. The low is expected to move off the Delaware coast and hug the coast. Rain will fall much of the time as the cold air just will not be able to wrap around the storm in time. As the storm is pulling out, I expect the rain to change to snow late Wednesday night for a 4-5 hour period. 1-3 inches of slushy wet snow should fall around the I-95 corridor, with 3-6 in the Lehigh Valley and areas north.

Possibility for an increase in snow totals:

There are a many weather junkies (including myself) who are willing to “nowcast” (forecasting as the storm happens) and disregard the models for this storm. The forecast models have had an extremely hard time and may not be portraying the rain/snow line correctly.

The words, “dynamic cooling,” are crucial for the early changeover to snow.  In simple terms, dynamic cooling is like continually putting ice cubes into a cup of water. The water will eventually cool down to near freezing, even though the initial temperature was above. We encountered major dynamic cooling during the Halloween storm: When the snow started falling in the morning, it slowly dropped the temperatures to freezing, making the changeover to snow much earlier than any model had anticipated.  This is what I am concerned will happen with this upcoming storm. I will continue to watch what develops later tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Here is my snow map:

It has been a very interesting day to track the forecast models. We are dealing with a storm very similar, with regard to the amount of cold air, to the October storm. The cutoff for snow will be sharp. The snow will also be wet and heavy where it falls. The storm should start Wednesday late night and end by Thursday afternoon. What type of precipitation will fall is still in question.

I am going to stick with the three scenario method I started yesterday:

Scenario 1: Like before, the storm takes the benchmark and rides up the coast. Storm will rapidly strengthen and bring in enough cold air for snow to fall around the area. If this scenario comes true, 3-6 locally 8 inches of snow would fall. I am currently favoring this scenario.

 Scenario 2: Once again, like yesterday, the storm would go out to sea and not affect the area. Would not strengthen in time to bring in cold air and heavy precipitation. Right now I am not leaning toward this solution.

Scenario 3: This is a little different from yesterday. The low would strengthen faster than scenario 1, and hug the coast. We would not have enough cold air to support snow until the very end. Minimal snow totals likely from this scenario. This setup is the current trend shown by the models. I am not sure if it will come true or not.

Stay tuned!!

Here is an overview of the three scenarios:

 

An exciting and stressful week is coming for many meteorologists around the country. As you can see from the title, we are looking at our possible 2nd snowstorm of the year Thursday and Friday. Many models have been showing some sort of nor’easter later this week. The storm will come from piece of energy associated with a cold front that will sweep past the area on Wednesday. After the cold front moves through, a nor’easter is expected to form.

The questions right now are:

1. How much cold air will the storm bring in?

• We all know from October that we don’t need much cold air aloft to create a major snowstorm. So, if the storm takes a favorable path, it should be mostly snow (maybe a little sleet at times).

2. Where will this storm go?

Three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: The storm takes the benchmark (favorable path). Strengthens rapidly and brings in cold air. Significant snows possible from this scenario.

Scenario 2: Storm does not strengthen and does not wind up. Jet flattens out and storm goes out to sea. Minimal precipitation likely from this scenario.

Scenario 3: Storm goes inland. Strengthens sooner than expected and rides the cold front before it passes through the area. This scenario would bring us a nice rainstorm.

All three of these scenarios are possible at this point. As we progress through the week, I will be able to narrow it down to two, then one scenario. Stay tuned.

After a quiet Thanksgiving weekend, we have a closed low pressure system forming in the south. This storm will drop around an inch of rain around the area tomorrow. Because it is a closed low, the center of circulation will be colder than the rest of the storm. Snow will actually fall in Mississippi and Alabama when the center moves over these areas. Amazing how the weather works! After the storm moves out, we will have a stretch of cooler weather before the uncertainty begins….

Ok, long-range time. It has been a stressful past couple of days for weather forecasters. The long-range has been extraordinarily volatile. Last week, it was looking like the cold and stormy weather would start December 5th. Right now, I’m not even sure if we’re going to have any snow in December. Predicting when the first prolonged cold and stormy weather is one of the most challenging feats for forecasters. I still have a feeling that winter will start sometime in mid-December. Long range models have definitely been hinting at a more stormy pattern, and there is plenty of arctic air ready to come down from Canada. It will be only a matter of time.

Well, it has been a while since I last posted. The quiet weather pattern we have seen the last few weeks has finally come to an end, for now. A low pressure system will slide to the west of our area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing us a substantial rainstorm. Rain totals could approach two inches in some spots.

Heavy rain over the area 1AM Wednesday:

The weather should be cool and sunny for the Thanksgiving parades and the Black Friday rush. High pressure will dominate to our south until another storm system affects the area next Tuesday. This storm should be mostly rain, with maybe some snow as it moves out. More details will surface as we head into the weekend.

In the long-range:…. Dramatic music!       The NAO looks to be headed into a more neutral position around Dec 5th. This means that the cold and snowy conditions should start not too far after. There are a few forecasters who do not believe the NAO and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) will be ideal for snow throughout the winter. I disagree with them. I believe our real snow season (the Halloween storm didn’t count) will start December 10th. The long-range forecast models are showing shots of prolonged cold air during this time period, as well as an active pattern. Stay posted!

We have had quite a long stretch of nice weather since our major snowstorm a few weeks ago. The jet has shifted, bringing the cold air and storminess into the Midwest. Our weather pattern should stay quiet for the next few weeks.  Long range models have not been showing much in terms of snow or even rain (except for a few isolated showers). In my opinion, this stretch of nice weather will be the final transition before winter begins. After December 5th, the cold and stormy pattern should start-up again.

Here is the North American Oscillation. As you can see, it is forecast to be neutral/slightly positive for the next few weeks before. After that, things get fussy. The ensembles have a large discrepancy by December, illustrating the possibility of a pattern shift.

Note: A more positive NAO signifies a quiet weather pattern in the East Coast, while a more negative NAO signifies an active one.

 

I have only one word to describe this storm: Shocking. Millions of people without power, combined with tree damage, will make this one of the most costly storms in October.

1. What Happened?: A nor’easter formed as expected in the Atlantic Ocean. The path of the storm was predicted correctly by the models and meteorologists alike. But, we did not believe that the amount of snow the forecast models projected to fall on Saturday would come true. Everyone assumed that it was impossible to have snow totals over a couple of inches in October. When I woke up Saturday morning, I knew something was seriously wrong.

I looked out my window to see snowflakes mixing with the rain falling. According to my forecast, I believed that the changeover would not happen until the late afternoon. But, by 11 AM, the rain had changed to all snow north of I-95. At noon, I had lost my power, which did not return until Sunday night. I watched in helplessness during the day Saturday as the snow kept piling up, breaking many tree branches in the process. By the time the storm moved out, there were over 2 million people without power in the Northeast.

Why did the changeover occur earlier? There was more cold air in place than expected during the time of the storm. As the nor’easter moved northeastward, it just brought in more cold air.

2. Effects: Peco announced that this storm was the worst October storm in their history. New Jersey is still under a State of Emergency as hundreds of thousands of people are still without power. Many trees were damaged during this storm, creating a lot of cleanup for households and local townships.

3. Opinion: Okay, this is my rant portion of the post. Anger is probably the word that describes how I feel toward the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly right now. On Friday morning, they were calling for a coating to an inch of snow for the NW suburbs of Philadelphia. At that time, most forecast models were showing 4-10 inches of snow to fall in the area, and it seemed that a Winter Storm Watch would be necessary. But instead, they did nothing. The news stations then based their forecasts off of the NWS and their remarks. As a result, most people thought that this storm would be a minor one for the area. There were no salt trucks ready, and people were ready to have a fun Halloween weekend. By the time the snow started falling Saturday morning, the NWS was on it heels, realizing their fault. They raised snowfall totals 6 inches for the suburbs. 6 Inches!  My forecast of 2-5 inches for the NW suburbs, was not nearly as bad as the NWS. What baffles me is the fact that these people are professionals. How can an amateur like myself have a better forecast than a whole group of forecasters who majored in meteorology?

All in all, we learned a lesson from this storm. It really does not matter that we are in October. If cold air is in place and a nor’easter is riding the coast, snow will fall. This past storm will undoubtedly serve as a great precedent for any future October snowstorms in our area.