Hello everyone. As the title of this post says, we will be looking at what’s going on in the long range forecasts. For the next 9 days we will be having beautiful (and warmer) weather in the area as high pressure will rule for the most part to our north and south. As we head into next Wednesday however, a low pressure will form in the Gulf of Mexico. It will then cut through the southeast and dart northeast. This type of path is very similar to what we saw in some of the large noreasters last year.

Now the storm after that is looking to hit on the Sunday or Monday before Thanksgiving. This storm has shown up on two straight GFS’ runs. This is extremely rare for a storm so far away to show up on two straight model runs. I do believe that there will be a storm around that time period but I have no idea who it will effect. These details will get ironed out as we get closer.

I will of course keep you updated on these two upcoming storms as time progresses. Otherwise enjoy your 9 days of nice weather, because it’s gonna get rough after that!

After a week of warmth, cooler weather has settled into the area. A large high pressure system in Canada will bring in below average to seasonal temperatures this week. We are also watching a possible Nor Easter for mid-week that would give us a rainy and windy Wednesday and Thursday. This storm will obviously not bring snow to the area, but it is a preview of what could be a major snowstorm in January or February.

Trick or treat forecast: It is going to be a fairly chilly Halloween this year with temperatures dipping into the 40s by the evening. Wear layers or a coat when you’re trick or treating and collect as much candy as possible!

Monday: Sunny and chilly High 47 Low 34

Tuesday: A repeat of Monday Hi 48 Low 33

Wednesday: Sun to clouds. Nor Easter at night? Hi 51 Low 35

Thursday: Nor Easter? Hi 50 Low 42 (Note, high temperature is subject to change dramatically depending how far the Nor Easter is off the coast)

And we will conclude today with the Fall Foliage update: As you can see, our area is at its peak color for the fall. By the end of this week however, we should be past peak color:

 

 

 

 

 

Hey everyone… I was pleasantly surprised to see people still visiting the dormant website over  the past few months. This will be the first post of many for Philaburbia Weather’s 2nd winter season. There will hopefully be some new features in the upcoming months including a new look to the site, maybe a twitter to the site, and even an iphone app (maybe :)).

And now to the weather:

Today was one of the warmest days on record, with the temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 70s in spots. Tomorrow will be one of the last nice days of the year until the real cold starts to move in from Canada over the next few weeks.

Tonight: Becoming clear late Low 54

Thursday the 28th: Mostly sunny and warm Hi 74

Thursday Night: Clear and much cooler Low 45

Friday: Much cooler and windier. Sunny. Hi 55 Low 34   WATCH FOR FROST

Saturday:  Cool and sunny Hi 57 Low 39

Also we will probably have a Frost Advisory issued for Friday night as the low will drop into the lower 30s.

I’d like to end today with a map of the current fall foliage going on in the Northeast:

We have a new storm on our hands about to form into Tropical Depression 4. This storm is the first tropical cyclone in a few years that worries me. Many of the computer models show this storm cut off Florida and head up the Atlantic coastline.

Here is a good picture of the computer model’s predictions:

Here is a satellite image of the storm:

Philaburbia will keep track of the storm as it develops and gradually crosses the Atlantic. Updates will be provided each day regarding the new tracks of the storm.

The drought of 2010 continues as temperatures sour into the 100s. Today (7/7) temps will be in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Yesterday, Trenton recorded a high temperature of 104 degrees! 5 people have died from the heat in Philadelphia and thousands of people have lost power. Over the past 30 days, the area has gotten less than 50% of their normal rainfall illustrated by the following map:

The heat has also been extremely above normal the past 15 days, as shown in the map below:

This heat and dryness has also taken a toll on plants and wildlife as trees and grass start to dry up. The area is also under a code red air advisory and an Excessive Heat Warning for today. Do not spend more than an hour outside without a drink or rest!

We will finally have a chance of rain on Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary passes through the area.

The last large severe weather outbreak for a while will plague the area today as a strong cold front plows east. Following this cold front temperatures will plummet into the 70s (can you believe it!). But today, highs will reach the mid to upper 90s with an Exessive Heat Warning issued for the entire coverage area. Because the temperatures are so high, this front will spark thunderstorms with many, many lightning strikes. With these storms the main threat will be the lightning and wind, unlike some of the previous storms which hail and tornadoes associated with them.

The storms will move through later this afternoon and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be issued.

Here are two images of the simulated radar for later today. Note that most people will get some much needed rain, but only the “lucky” areas will get thunderstorms:

Well everyone, we have our first tropical storm of the 2010 season. This storm has been trudging through the Caribbean for a little over a week now, finally gaining steam and becoming Tropical Storm Alex. Because the storm formed so late and so close to land (Yucatan Penninsula), its strength isn’t expected to exceed a Tropical Storm. As of right now, Alex has no intentions of affecting the Philaburbia Coverage area anytime soon. I will keep you posted on the development of Alex as the week progresses and how (if at all) it affects our area!

Radar image and projected path of Alex:

Coming up later today or tomorrow morning: MORE SEVER WEATHER COMING!

Update 12:30 PM: Okay, right after I published the last post, the NWS posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire area until 8:00 PM. Expect the worst of the storms to pass through the area around 3-5 PM.

Here is the WRF simulated radar this afternoon; the storms will be scattered, but when they hit they will be severe:

As highs today reach the mid 90s, strong storms are forming in Central Pennsylvania right now. There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for that area right now, which will most likely be issued for our area by the mid-afternoon. The SPC placed the coverage area in a slight risk for severe weather and we are still under an excessive heat watch. The main threat for the thunderstorms today will be high, destructive winds. I wouldn’t rule out a few tornadoes popping up in places later today either. I will keep you updated throughout the day as these storms progress eastward.

Current position of storms as of 12:15:

REMEMBER TO CHECK THE RADARS PAGE FOR CONTINUOUS RADAR COVERAGE!

The beginning of summer enters with a bang as we face our second heat wave of the year. Temperatures have reached the 90s the past three days and will continue to rise as the weak progresses. The NWS issued a Excessive Heat Warning earlier for Wednesday as heat indices will reach 100 degrees. There is also a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire area until 9:00. Right now the worst of the thunderstorms are hitting Chester County and Northern Delaware.

Worst Storms Hitting Chester as of 6:00 PM:

The chance of strong storms will continue as this line moves through the area. Remember, if you hear thunder go inside immediately!

Check the Radars Page for updating radars throughout the night

Update: 8:00 Wednesday Night

Some average thunderstorms are moving through Central Pennsylvania right now as the frontal boundary moves west. Right now, I doubt that the storms will endure the night. The weather will become sunny and hot as the week progresses with the next chance of storms coming Sunday or Monday.

In hurricane news… Invest 92L has dissipated after a brief period of panic from some meteorologic experts. The NHC placed this tropical system as “very favorable” for development earlier this week. Right now, the system is hitting shear and will eventually break up in the eastern Caribbean. The link for the NHC is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Hello everyone! Haven’t posted anything in a while…. Had to let school wind down and rest my brain. \

My main topic for today is the severe weather ready to attack our western coverage area today. A weak cold front (called a frontal boundery) is right now brewing in western Pennsylvania. The Storm Prediction Center originally had the severe weather area to the south of us, but suddenly moved it north late last night.

Here are some maps to help understand:

This map below is the WRF-NMM simulated radar that the computers thought up earlier this morning. As you can see, there will most likely be a line ranging from Chester county up to Bucks county wit another line following to the west. My concern is that the western line will turn severe as an effect of the sunlight and evaporation after the first line moves through.

The next map is just the SPC’s severe thunderstorm probablility for later today. I will update any changes that ensue as the day progresses, so keep watch!

Remember to keep an eye on the skies later this morning and afternoon. If a thunderstorm comes through, go inside!