Well, the “storm” that was supposed to be tomorrow will stay more south than I originally thought. Washington DC and Cincinnati will be getting a decent snowfall from this storm, not Philly. I still believe that the models are showing the storm a little too far south at this point. Many news stations are calling for just cloudy skies tomorrow, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a snow shower passes over the region and coats grassy surfaces.

For the upcoming week, the weather pattern is complicated. We are looking at two possible storms in 5 days, each with a chance to give us some snow.

The first chance would be on Wednesday. This storm is looking to be sloppy one with snow changing to rain and back to snow at the end. Right now, the models are all over the place. Some are showing it not phasing with the jet and some are showing it ride the coast and give us a decent storm. Right now it’s a waiting game until we get into the short-range.

The second chance is looking to be on Saturday. This storm has the most potential of giving us a substantial snow. The only aspect of both of these upcoming storms I am sure about are the cold temperatures. We will be having temps that will be way below normal (40 and low 50s). Bundle up this week, because it’s going to be a cold, wet, and snowy one.

Finally, here is a map showing the confusion of the weather models. This is portraying Wednesday night and shows one elongated storm instead of two separate ones. In this case, we would be getting 2-4 inches of snow Wednesday night with no storm on Saturday:

 

 

 

 

The busy times are starting up again for many meteorologists in the Northeast. Usually in late March we are dealing with temperatures in the 60s and rain storms riding up the coast. Because this winter has been one of the most extreme and surprising in almost 100 years, it is not a surprise that we will be dealing with temperatures 10-20 degrees below average for the next 3 weeks or so. I have a feeling that it will only hit 60 degrees a 2 or 3 times in the next 20 days.

The nice weather pattern we have been in for the last month is breaking; the NAO is in the tank and the PNA is rising, both signs of storminess and below average temperatures.

GFS temps compared to average for the next week:

 

I also want to talk about the snow coming later tonight into tomorrow. We are generally looking at 1-4 inches of wet slushy snow. Some back-roads could be slippery tomorrow morning as well as tomorrow evening when the storm wraps up and brings the cold air back in.

 

We have another storm Sunday that is looking to bring a more 2-5 inch snow mostly falling during the day. Then we have another on next Tuesday and Wednesday that is looking to be big. Right now most models are showing it out to sea, but I have a feeling, based on the NAO values tanking, that the models will bring the storm west and give us a significant snowstorm.

Just be aware that we have a chance, in spring, to be snowed in once again with school closings and other snow cancellations.

Oh boy, snow. Just when people think it’s over, more of the white stuff could be on the way. This is something I’ve been watching for the past few days now, but recently there has been some model guidance that shows a decent snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. I am going to stay very cautious with this snowstorm as it is extremely rare we see any snow  in late March.

The most likely scenario is some mix of rain and snow at night on Wednesday changing to rain by Thursday. But there is a slim chance that enough cold air is brought in to change the mix to snow at Wednesday night and delay the transition to rain on Thursday. Any snow that falls Wednesday night will be heavy and wet (good for snowballs). I will continue to track this storm as it gets closer and will continue to update on its status.

Anyway, here is the snow situation I’m looking at right now from the NAM model (2AM Thursday):

 

And finally, here is the forecast:

Monday: Rain in the morning, clearing out by evening Hi: 58 Low: 43

Tuesday: Sunny Hi: 51 Low: 33

Wednesday: Becoming cloudy with some mix (snow?) at night Hi: 44 Low: 32

Thursday: Snow or rain Hi: 40 Low: 32

 

This is a special Philaburbia Weather post on the Sendai earthquake and tsunami:

Even though earthquakes and tsunamis aren’t exactly weather related, many meteorologists become interested when a natural disaster occurs. So what exactly happened in Japan yesterday? According to the USGS, the magnitude of the quake was 8.9. It occurred around 130 kilometers from the shoreline in the Pacific Ocean.  Because earthquakes are exponentially measured, higher magnitude quakes are substantially more serious than a quake maybe just a few numbers lower (7.0-8.0). Japan lies on the edge of a major tectonic plate, therefore earthquakes are part of normal life and structures are built to withstand frequent earthquakes. As a result, many of the buildings and structures on the northeastern side of the island stood without any major collapses.

Here’s a whirlpool that formed because of the tsunami:

The real damage came from the tsunami caused by the earthquake. The quake was a result of two tectonic plates slipping in a rapid fashion. Because the quake originated in the ocean, the movement of the plates caused a massive wall of water to form and start moving away from the quake in all directions. The city of Sendai received the most damage, with the storm surge rising over 20 feet. Anything in the way of the surging water was washed away and became part of the murky water. Thousands are feared to be dead and missing. There is also a scare that a major nuclear meltdown will ensue.

Here is a video of the tsunami taking over the Sendai airport:

More details will unfold as the water recedes and damage is accessed. I send my most sincere regards to the people of Japan, specifically Sendai; I can’t imagine what they’re going through right now.

That’s all for now,

adios

Anyone living close to a creek or river, I would be taking precautions for a major rainstorm expected to hit on Thursday with creek and rivers rising to flood stage by Friday Afternoon. After crossing the Delaware River at Washington Crossing this morning, I really had a chance to see how swollen the rivers have been over the last few days. With another 2-4 inches of rain coming Thursday, I could definitely see places like Yardley, New Hope, and Langhorne being flooded on Friday and Saturday.

Here is a cool graphic that shows the amount of rain that Philly might get on Thursday: Click Picture to Enlarge

Because someone requested it, here is the 5 day forecast:

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy by the afternoon High: 48 (higher temps the longer the sun is out) Low: 31

Thursday: Heavy rain throughout the day (2-4 inches of rain). Flood Watch. Hi: 54 Low: 40

Friday: Rain ending in the morning. Skies clearing rapidly by the afternoon. Hi: 50 Low: 28

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies Hi: 53 Low: 32

Sunday: Repeat of Saturday Hi: 52 Low:32

Wow, after an extremely tough last week of my trimester and a sickness over the weekend, I have finally posted.

So much  has gone on over the last 2 weeks. There’s been rain, then some more rain, then a rainstorm. This is what weathermen live for (not really)! The spring is always a time of monotonous weather; temperatures are too warm for any frozen precip and they’re too cold for any severe weather. With the exception of last spring, the months from March-May generally are marked by a brief period of warmth, followed by a rainstorm, followed by a windy day.

This is exactly what is happening this week. After a pretty large rainstorm passed through on Sunday, another one will arrive on Thursday. Rainfall totals could range from 1-2 inches. Tuesday will be probably the nicest day of the week with temps in the upper 40s and calm wind. On Wednesday, clouds will take over the skies. By Thursday, temperatures will be in the mid-50s, but a steady rain will fall for most of the day. Friday will be a windy day, with temperatures around 50 but feeling like they’re 40.

 

 

 

After this week, temperatures will rise with more rain in the forecast… welcome to spring!

 

The computer models are finally in agreement for the next “double barrel” storm. At this point, it is looking that we’ll get 1-3 inches of snow later tonight into tomorrow morning. Roads should be fine because of the warmer temperatures we’ve had recently. There is a Winter Weather Advisory for Philly northward, but I believe road conditions will be perfectly fine tomorrow morning.

The storm after that could be a little more unpredictable. As of right now it is looking like another 1-3 inches Tuesday morning. Again, nothing serious and the roads should be decent enough to travel on. I am concerned that the second storm could have precip more north than the models are projecting. With that said, I will not let my guard down for the second storm. I will keep checking ever run to see if any changes have ensued.

Just a note on the Meteorology lesson: I will be talking about low pressure systems after the storms coming up (AKA Tuesday).

And finally some long-range input for anybody who’s curious about whats coming up in the weather:

1. After the double trouble storms, temps should rise. A soaker is looking possible on Friday (2/25) with a change to snow at the end

2. March 1-3: This is the next chance for a snowstorm. I am getting the feeling that this could be our last real storm until spring.

3. After March 3rd temperatures should stay below freezing.

I hope everyone enjoyed the warmth we got today. I actually had the window open in my car driving today! Many records were broken with the highs reaching 72 in Trenton and 69 in Philly. A cold front will sweep through the area tonight and lower the temperatures by 20 degrees.

THEN… it gets complicated. A storm system will pass to the north on Sunday giving us occasional showers. After that nuisance system passes it gets really complex. Another storm will follow it on Tuesday. Its placement actually depends on a trough in the west and how far west it will be sitting during the storm.

Models are all over place right now and details are a little vague. I’m leaning toward a more snowy solution but anything could change right now. A general 3-6 inches should be the maximum for the Tuesday storm. A minimum looks to be 1-3, so we’re looking at some snow. Another problem is, as we’ve seen before all season, that the storm will pass right during the morning rush on Tuesday. Even if we get only 1-3 inches, the morning rush will be nasty.

Here’s a map of the snow at 1 AM Tuesday Morning:

Temps will be in the 30s on Tuesday, a 40 degree drop from today. Truly amazing.

Temps will rise at the end of next week, then it should get cold and stormy for the beginning of March. Still some winter to go!!

Hi everyone. I just wanted to apologize for the over hype for the Thursday storm. I had many people come up to me today and ask how much snow we’re getting on Thursday. The fact is, we’re probably not getting any snow on Thursday. The trough in the east has flattened out to sea. The trough is the path a storm takes when it moves west to east. A sharper trough means a storm riding the coast; a flatter trough means a storm is out to sea. All computer models are showing a flattened trough on Thursday which means the storm will be likely suppressed out to sea. I’d expect a partly cloudy day Thursday with below average temperatures.

I also wanted to talk about switch in the weather pattern next week: Temperatures will rise next week as the La Nina we’ve been waiting for all winter finally shows its face. By next Wednesday, I’m guessing any snow on grass will be gone. There will be a break from any storms, rain or snow, for the next 10 days or so.

This break in the pattern gives many weathermen and enthusiasts a well deserved break. Of course just because it will get warmer next week doesn’t mean winter is over. Cold weather should return in late February and early March as Old Man Winter fights his last fight. For the snow lovers: Your time has ended until late February. For the warmer weather lovers: enjoy the next week and a half!

I am going to try to have some newer features this week to compensate for the lack of storminess. I will be reviving my 5 day forecast and will be having more “day-to-day” forecasts instead of “storm to storm” ones. A “this day in history” feature may be started sometime this week as well.

I have two things to talk about in tonight’s post:

1. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for the area into tomorrow. This is a little too over the top in my opinion. There will be little if any snow, and the amount of freezing rain that falls will quickly be melted by a changeover to rain. Tomorrow will be a pretty nasty day however, so don’t expect to soak up and sunbathe in the winter sun…

2. Alright. I promise all the people who can’t wait till Spring that next Thursday’s storm will be the last for a little while. However, this storm coming next Thursday could be the biggest one yet this year. From the looks of a few select models I’ve reviewed, the setup will be a northern and southern jet phase that will ultimately culminate in a big storm riding up the east coast. Unlike the last few “slop” storms, the one coming up will have plenty of cold air to work with.

Because we are still 6 days out, the classic “model waffling” is occurring. The European is showing the big storm, while the gfs model isn’t anymore. This lack of consensus will continue until probably 54 hours out. This means I will hopefully be ready to post a snow map by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

I will have another post tomorrow with an update…

And of course a graphic of the storm Thursday: