It’s been a very busy time for many meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. The pattern we are in right now just keeps sending storms across the country and off the coast. Another coastal storm is expected to arrive on Friday early morning in a similar setup that we had for the post-Christmas storm.

Current thinking: There are 2 scenarios (huge surprise there) for this upcoming storm. The European and GFS computer models want to weaken the phasing of the storm and wrap it up near Atlantic Canada. The NAM and a few other models have generally shown an earlier and stronger phase which would bring a significant snowstorm to the area Friday. If the storm follows the GFS scenario, we would get a general 3-6 snowstorm. If the NAM solution is right, a general 8-12 inches would fall Friday morning. One positive aspect of this storm regardless of what scenario comes true is that we’re definitely getting some snow. Friday morning commute will be pretty bad even with the 3-6 inch scenario.

Schools (To make my classmates happy): For the 3-6 inch scenario, a delayed opening is likely as the snow will fall smack in the middle of the morning commute. If the 8-12 inch scenario is right, then there would be widespread closings.

I am confident we’re getting at least 3 inches Friday morning. What I’m not fully sure of is the storm track and the specific snow totals.

And finally I want to thank my mom for taking these pictures of the ice on the trees this morning after I left for school. This was before temperatures rose above freezing earlier today.

More updates to come on the Friday storm including a snow map tomorrow night most likely

Update 5:30 PM: So far no real changes on the models. Now-casting will probably be the best way to predict from this time forward as the storm starts to wind up along the coast.

 

Hello everyone. I won’t be doing a snow map for this storm, just because of its complexity in nature. The Philadelphia area is looking at a very sloppy storm Tuesday morning as a low pressure system rides the trough to our east. The storm won’t bring in the cold air like the storm last week, therefore giving us a wintry mix. By midnight tonight, snow should start to fall across the area and accumulate a general 1-2 inches. By early morning, the snow will turn to freezing rain as warm air aloft takes over. Freezing rain is pretty much ice. It looks like rain is falling, but because the surface temperature will be lower than 32 degrees, when the rain hits the surface, it will freeze over.

The freezing rain will turn to rain by 4-5 AM south of Philadelphia and 8-10 AM north of Philadelphia. I still am not too confident in the time frame of this storm. Wintry mix storms are generally the hardest to predict, as you have to rely on where 32 degree mark will be at the surface and in the upper atmosphere. There is a chance that this storm busts and a chance that this storm turns into a major ice storm. I would say a major ice storm is unlikely at this point, as most computer models are in agreement Temperature wise.

Schools: It will be a difficult decision for schools in Bucks, Montgomery, Mercer, and Hunterdon counties as the freezing rain will be falling during the morning commute. A delayed opening is pretty likely at this point for most schools.

Next storm: A SNOWstorm could hit the area on Friday. More on this once the slop storm is over.

As we put the last storm behind us and into the history books, another storm is on the horizon. This system is fairly different from the last one, with more warm air aloft moving in as the storm pulls through. The primary low will ride through the Great Lakes, while a secondary will form off the Delmarva coast. This setup will give us snow at first, then changing to a freezing rain, and then to all rain by the afternoon. It will surely be a day of extremes as we will see everything fall out of the sky (even cats and dogs).

Here are some maps to help sort out the time-frame of this storm:

1 AM Tuesday:

 

Well, that’s all for now on this storm. I will be giving updates as the weekend progresses. I will have no comment on how this storm will affect the schools. This will come on either late Saturday or Sunday.

Well, our first storm of 2011 has pulled away into New England, leaving us with sunny skies. The snow totals increased the further up the I-95 corridor you went. The storm was a quick hitter, with the snow falling for only 8-9 hours. Snow rates reached 2-3 inches per hour during the height of the storm, which accounted for most of the totals. At my house in Bucks County, I received a little under 8 inches of snow.

Here are some other snow totals:

1. Rocky Hill, Somerset County: 9.0 inches

2. Lawrenceville, Mercer County: 8.0 inches

3. Morrisville, Bucks County: 7.9 inches

4. King of Prussia, Montgomery County: 6.3 inches

5. Philadelphia: 5.2 inches

And here are some pictures in my backyard:

Update: 11:30 PM:

Snow is really starting to band throughout the area and we are seeing isolated 2-3 inch per hour rates. The snow should start to slow down by 4 AM and be totally out of the area by 8 AM. I will have pictures tomorrow morning as I have a day off from school!

Well, parts of the area are already seeing some light snow as the low pressure in the Ohio Valley moves to the east. There have been some changes to the timeframe and totals a little bit. The snow will start a little earlier than I though and probably end a little earlier as well. Also the low in the Ohio Valley has turned out to be a bit stronger, which means that the phase between the coastal low and the Ohio low won’t happen until the storm is practically over New England. This means slightly lower totals for the southern part of the area (Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia). Totals should keep the same in the northeastern areas (Bucks, Mercer, Hunterdon) as these areas will be closer to where the storm phases.

Here are some specific snow total predictions:

1. The City of Chester, Delaware Co.: 3 inches

2. Philadelphia: 4-6 inches

3. Hatboro, Bucks Co. 5-7 inches

4. Trenton, Mercer Co. 8-11 inches

As you can see the totals will go up the more northeast you go.

Here is a live radar image of the storm to keep track as the night progresses:

 

I will have updates as the night progresses….

Hi everyone. I finally have a snow-map set up and ready. This storm will be a New England special with most of the 1 to 2 feet totals happening in Massachusetts and Connecticut. For this area we are looking at a fairly substantial snowstorm with a potential to put down 6-12 inches of snow in one night. My snow map is mostly based off of the NAM computer model released by noaa, but has shades of other model predictions as well. I believe that the battle zone for this storm will be anywhere east of Doylestown to Bordentown area. Every storm ends up doing something unexpected in the end, and right now with the complexity of the timing of the storm and when it will phase makes a surprise very possible tomorrow night.

Timing: The storm should start by 11 PM and wrap up by 11 AMish. The snow will be heaviest during the 3-6 AM time period.

With that said, here is my snow map. I believe my totals are the best estimate of how much will fall tomorrow in the area. If any changes ensue over the next day, I will try and make revisions to the map.

School Closings:

As far as school closings are concerned. I believe any school north of Philadelphia will be closed Wednesday. With the amount of snow that is going to pile by the late morning, I just don’t believe the salt trucks will be able to clear the roads in time. The morning commute Wednesday will be treacherous, so anyone going to work Wednesday, drive slowly and carefully.

Only a few words today cause I’ve been really busy (thanks AP gov). We have a major snowstorm coming I am 100% sure of it. The totals right now are still up in the air but I’d say 6+ inches will fall Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Winter Storm Warnings will be issued tomorrow night and schools will be closed Wednesday and possibly Thursday if we get over a foot of snow. I will post a snow map tomorrow with complete total predictions.

Until then, get ready for another major snowstorm because I guarantee it will look like this on Tuesday Night:

 

I was introduced to a pleasant surprise this afternoon when I found out ANOTHER winter weather advisory was issued for the area. The computer models have placed a last-minute low pressure forming in North Carolina tonight and moving up the coast tomorrow. This means that ANOTHER 2-4 inches of snow will fall in the area Saturday which will cause MORE travel problems and more snow on the ground. THEN, we have the big storm probably coming Tuesday Night into Wednesday which will give us the more significant snow amounts. The next week will be one of the busiest of the season so far, and by Thursday we could have over a foot of snow on the ground.

Snow Projection for Saturday Jan 8th

 

 

 

Hi everyone, I am doing a tiresome late night post about the upcoming Friday storm and the more favorable storm next Wednesday.

Friday Storm: This Friday, a clipper system will move west through the area and eventually phase with a low pressure out to sea. The models haven’t been handling this storm as well as the Post-Christmas storm. Everything has to fit like a jigsaw puzzle for this coastal storm to form: the clipper has to be in the right place at the right time, as well as the low in the Atlantic. From the latest model consensus, I would say a good 2-4 inches of snow will fall on average throughout the area. The northern areas will most likely get more than the southern because at this point, the coastal is expected to form near Cape Cod. I would also expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be posted either tonight or tomorrow.

Travel problems for the Friday storm: There will undoubtedly be traffic problems during the day Friday as the clipper moves through and strengthens in the afternoon. I do not believe any schools will let out early, but if any increase in snow intensity is shown on the models, some schools could let out early.

About the January 12th storm: I am really liking the looks of this storm. Even though some of the computer models have been showing an out to sea scenario, I believe that the setup is perfect for a major snowstorm. I am talking about this early just to give everyone a heads up and to beat the local TV news stations of its coverage. The GFS has been showing a major snowstorm and the EURO has been going back and forth. I would say the best chance for any schools being closed this season will be for the storm next Wednesday. Even though this is a bold statement, I really feel that the setup is perfect for a Nor Easter next week. I will be posting more about this storm as more details are ironed out.

Sorry guys, no pictures today, I’ve been very busy with school and the works. Tomorrow if I have time, I’ll post a snow map of Friday’s storm and more details of next Wednesday’s Nor Easter.

Hi everyone! I just want to say thanks to everyone for visiting the blog yesterday, Philaburbia needs all the support it can get. The blizzard has finally pulled out of the area bringing in sunny skies and nasty frigid winds from the northeast. This storm was a little different from the classic Nor Easter. Because there wasn’t a blocking high to the north, more banding occurred with the snow making the totals a little inconsistent in some areas. I would say my forecast, if you take the average snow amounts from each area, is fairly accurate. The storm did go further east than previously thought, which took any mix potential out of the question along the coastline, but overall the totals for the area (not counting the shore) were in the 10-20 inch range.

Here is a radar loop until midnight last night of the storm for your viewing pleasure:

And now for the snow total recap. At my house I got around 9.5 inches of snow with some higher snow drifts. Snow totals were much higher to the east in NJ and lower to the north and west.

Toms River NJ: 28.0 inches

Princeton NJ: 15.0 inches

Philadelphia PA: 12.4 inches

Doylestown PA: 5.1 inches

Somerset NJ: 22.0 inches

These are just a few of many reported snow totals throughout the area. This storm will definitely be remembered for anyone living in NJ for many years to come. As for Southeast Pennsylvania, I have a feeling that there could be a storm for Monday January 10th (yes I know that’s 14 days away) which could give anyone living north of Philadelphia their blizzard.

Anyway, thanks for keeping with Philaburbia Weather and keep checking back throughout the winter for any snowstorm possibilities!